Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Global Head of Investment Strategy
1. Economic uncertainty and recession fears
The primary driver of the sell-off is growing concern over the U.S. economy. President Trump's comments about the country entering a "period of transition" and his reluctance to rule out a recession have added to market jitters. Unpredictable tariff policies and mixed signals from the administration about economic growth have led to a broad market re-pricing. Investors are moving away from growth stocks, particularly in tech, and into safer, more defensive assets.
2. Tech stocks hit harder than most
The Magnificent Seven stocks, which had led the market rally in 2024, are now leading it downwards. With the exception of Meta, all are in the red for 2025. Tesla has seen the most dramatic decline, losing over 50% of its value since its peak. Nvidia, once the poster child of the AI boom, has also struggled, shedding nearly a third of its market value in just two months. Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon are not far behind, each grappling with the harsh reality of slowing growth and rising costs.
3. High expectations meet harsh reality
These stocks had been priced for perfection, with investors betting on continuous growth and market dominance. However, persistent inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical risks have led to a harsh reality check. The transition from growth to defensive stocks has accelerated, and tech has become the primary casualty of this shift.
“Amid the tech sell-off and bear market for the Magnificent Seven, remember: Market sentiment can shift quickly, but disciplined investors know that panic is not a strategy”
Tesla: Big cracks in the EV giant’s armour
Tesla's dramatic drop is closely tied to disappointing sales projections and delivery concerns. Analysts have slashed expectations for Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries by 16%, highlighting weaker demand in crucial markets such as China and Germany. The situation in China is particularly concerning, with vehicle sales plummeting nearly 50% in February. In Germany, registrations dropped a staggering 70%, underscoring Tesla’s struggles to maintain its market share.
Elon Musk's involvement in US politics has also played a role in Tesla's stock volatility. His advisory role in the Trump administration and his often controversial public statements have created a backlash in some markets, affecting both consumer sentiment and sales. With the stock now down more than 50% from its peak, there are genuine concerns about whether Tesla’s growth narrative is losing steam.
Nvidia: From AI darling to market doubt
Nvidia, which had thrived on the AI boom, is now facing a tough market reality. The company has lost nearly a third of its value since reaching its high earlier this year. While Nvidia remains a leader in the semiconductor industry, investor sentiment has soured amid rising competition from cheaper Chinese AI technologies. Potential export restrictions on advanced chips to China have further clouded Nvidia’s growth outlook.
Despite these challenges, some market analysts see a silver lining. Nvidia's valuation, which once seemed overstretched, is now at a more reasonable level. Its price-to-earnings ratio has dropped significantly, and the company’s core business remains strong. If Nvidia can maintain its market leadership, this period of uncertainty could present a rare buying opportunity for long-term investors.
While the risks to the economy are real, the sharp decline in tech stocks may be an overreaction. The current sell-off appears to be driven more by fears around economic policy and sentiment rather than a sudden deterioration in company fundamentals. The Magnificent Seven still boast solid financials, strong cash flows, and leading market positions.
The broader market may be experiencing a "manufactured correction," where external factors—such as political rhetoric and tariff uncertainties—are driving a temporary market shift. For investors with a long-term perspective, this could signal an opportunity rather than a reason to panic.
1. Focus on fundamentals
Amid all the market noise and shifting sentiment, it's important for investors to cut through the chaos and focus on the fundamentals. While the market's mood has turned sharply negative in just a few weeks, the core strengths and the underlying business models and growth prospects of these companies have not fundamentally changed—only the market’s perception has.
2. Avoid emotional decision-making
Panic selling during downturns often leads to regret. Market history shows that the best recovery days typically follow the worst days. Selling now could mean locking in losses and missing the rebound. Instead, this might be a good time to look for buying opportunities in strong companies that are now trading at a discount.
3. Stay disciplined and diversified
We are emerging from a period of extreme market concentration, where the Magnificent Seven dominated the market's gains. As sentiment shifts and market volatility rises, this is a clear reminder that diversification is crucial. Broadening your investment exposure to include defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples can help stabilize your portfolio and reduce risk. It's time to balance the big tech bets with a more diversified, resilient approach.
"When the Magnificent Seven lose their shine, it's a reminder that diversification isn't just smart—it's essential for navigating market storms."
The Magnificent Seven might not look so magnificent right now, but market downturns often create opportunities. Investors who can see beyond the short-term volatility and focus on long-term potential may find value where others see risk. The key is to remain calm, assess the fundamentals, and avoid making decisions based on fear.
While the market's current state is unsettling, those who maintain a steady hand and a disciplined approach are likely to emerge stronger when the storm passes. The Magnificent Seven may have lost some of their shine, but their story is probably not over. For patient and strategic investors, this could be a moment to capture future gains while the market is fearful.
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