Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
CAC40. The technical picture on the leading French Index CAC40 looks quite similar to DAX. https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/ta-dax-04042022
CAC40 seems to be rejected at the 0,764 Fibonacci retracement at around 6,836. Index is below 200 SMA and 0.618 retracement seems to offer some support at 6,630. If CAC closes below we are likely to see at test of support at around 6,421.
For CAC to resume uptrend a close above 6,835 is needed. However, there is still some strong overhead resistance.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment not being able to break above 60 threshold. RSI breaking below rising trendline could be an indication of selling pressure to resume
AEX Amsterdam Index got rejected at the 735 key resistance. If the main Amsterdam Index drops below 718 strong support at around 700 is likely to be tested.
If AEX takes out last weeks high at 740 755 resistance is likely to be tested.
However, RSI is still showing negative sentiment not being able to break above 60 threshold. RSI breaking below rising trendline could be an indication of selling pressure to resume on Dutch stocks.
BEL20 has outperformed most of all other European equities markets breaking above its 200 daily SMA (Simple Moving Average). -The Index seems to be trading in a rising channel, a bearish breakout of the channel could be first warning of a top and reversal scenario. The Bear Engulfing candle on the last trading of March indicates we could have seen a top. However, that that top and reversal candle will be cancelled out if BEL20 closes above at 4,159 or higher.
Swiss SMI Index ran out of steam last week a few points below of the strong resistance level at around 12,411 . This morning it seems like buyers will have another go at the resistance. If they succeed and SMI closes above more upside is likely. There is not much resistance before all-time highs at 12,997.
Support at around 12,069 is the one to keep an eye on. A close below could very well cause intensified selling pressure.
OMX C25 cap was rejected this morning at the 1,818 resistance level and 100 SMA. For further upside a daily close above 1,818 is needed.
If OMXC25 closes below the short term rising trend line support at 1,721 is likely to come under pressure. A close below February lows at 1,567 is likely to be tested.
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)