Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Technical Update - Hang Seng reached levels not seen in 11 years. China A50 testing key support. Will they drop lower?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Hang Seng Index is trading at the lowest level in 11 years. Dipping below 2011 lows at 16,170 the Index did manage to close just above. Trend is down but there is divergence on daily RSI indicating a correction could be seen. A correction is likely to be limited however, weekly RSI is showing no divergence indicating lower levels are in the cards. And if daily RSI closes below its rising trendline it would be a strong indication of lower price levels.
On the monthly chart a big Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern has formed. Not the most textbook perfect as that would require both shoulders to be at equal height but nevertheless an S-H-S like pattern.
Rule of thumb is that the price after break of the neckline could move the same distance as distance from the Head to the Neckline illustrated by the two vertical arrows.
That would indicate a price target around 8,500. However often the price doesn’t move that far and there is strong support at around 11,344.
15K is also a likely price target. It is the 1.618 projection of the 2020-2021 correction
Rule of thumb is that the price after break of the neckline could move the same distance as distance from the Head to the Neckline illustrated by the two vertical arrows.
That would indicate a price target around 8,500. However often the price doesn’t move that far and there is strong support at around 11,344.
15K is also a likely price target. It is the 1.618 projection of the 2020-2021 correction
The China A50 Index future has dipped below the Q1 low and support at 12,294 but managed to close above. The down trend seems a bit stretched with divergence on RSI. However, RSI has closed below its lower rising trendline indicating there could be more downside.
If A50 closes below 12,294 there is no strong support until around 11,498 i.e,, Q1 2020 low. Weekly RSI has closed below its lower rising trendline meaning despite showing divergence combined with Bollinger Bands expanding there are strong indications of lower levels and a likely move to the 11,498.
To reverse this bearish picture short-term a close above 13,502 is needed. If this occurs A50 is likely to test the falling (black) trendline. But to change the medium- to longer term bearish scenario a close above 15,015 is needed
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)