Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Past three trading days have formed a Three White Soldiers like pattern indicating a fourth exhaustive trading day to follow.
S&P500 the rebound seems strong. Past three trading days have formed a formation what looks like “Three White Soldiers”.
It is rare pattern often seen when market rebounds. (The Hammer candle indicated a bottom and reversal)
The soldiers are often followed by a fourth minor positive day, whereafter price usually tumbles.
The falling volume during the Three Soldiers pattern indicates the rebound is weak and that it is not unlikely to exhaust in a couple of days.
Further, RSI is still below 60 threshold. A daily close above will confirm short term uptrend. However, if RSI fails to close above 60 there is a great risk the above “price tumbling “ scenario after the three white soldiers will unfold.
Resistance at 4,224 and strong resistance at 4,300.
Almost identical picture on Nasdaq 100. Volume falling during rebound indicates weak trend. Strong resistance at around 13K and at 13,543. If gap between 26th and 27th is closed selling pressure is likely to resume.
Dow Jones Industrial has experienced four positive trading days in a row. It is not unlikely to experience another one but upside could be limited with resistance at 33,637. Volume has been falling indicating a weak rebound. Volume needs to return to keep for the Index to keep upside momentum.
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)