Key Stories from the past week: 2025, start your engines….

Key Stories from the past week: 2025, start your engines….

Macro
Saxo Be Invested
Saxo

The first full working week of the year has been characterized by rising yields globally as the US economy continues to perform strongly and rate cuts are put on the back burner. The bond selloff was particularly pronounced in the UK pressuring the British exchequer as the cost of borrowing increases. Furthermore, demand for safe haven assets and US tariff threats saw precious metals rise, while comments from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sparked a massive sell-off in Quantum Computer related stocks. More below on this week’s key stories.


UK Bond Turmoil
UK Gilt yields rose sharply all along the curve, with the 10-year benchmark climbing to 4.84% by Friday. Earlier in the week the 30-year yield hit 5.35%, the highest level since 1998. The moves risk stagflation for the country as the government tries to stick to its fiscal rules on tax and spending. GBP suffered a broad drubbing, with GBPUSD hitting a new low at 1.2267, the important EURGBP cross for sterling traded above 0.8375, with the next focus on the 0.8400-0.8450 zone.
FX Update: UK looks at stagflation

Quantum Crash: Quantum computing shares tumble on uncertain outlook
Several stocks in the quantum computing industry fell sharply on Wednesday, after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang claimed it would likely be 20 years before very useful quantum computers are seen. While having seen significant gains in Q4 2024, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum & Quantum Computing Inc all saw about 40% loss in share price as the nearer-term outlook for the industry’s technology was put into question. At Saxo, trading activity for the above companies at least doubled on Wednesday with a roughly even mixture of selling & buying.
Quantum Computing Stocks Are Having a Rough Week

Novo Nordisk
Novo's stock fell nearly 30% in the fourth quarter due to disappointing clinical-trial data, concerns about its obesity pill, and slower supply capacity for Ozempic and Wegovy. Despite this, analysts still rate the stock as a "Buy" with a 12-month average price target of 840 DKK. They expect sales growth slightly above 20% for 2025, which could help offset the impact of the $11 billion acquisition of Catalent. Novo plans further studies for its weight-loss drug CagriSema, with results expected in the first half of 2025. Novo Nordisk has been one of the most traded equities so far this year in Saxo. 
Novo Nordisk Faces 5 Key Questions, Says Analyst

Metals
Ten days into 2025, the commodities sector has experienced unexpected gains, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index rising over 3% despite challenges like a strong dollar and potential trade wars. Gains were observed in all sectors except grains. Gold continued its rally, reaching a one-month high, while silver, copper, and platinum also performed well, driven by both industrial and investor demand. Part of the explanation for these behaviours lies in year-end positioning; copper and platinum futures positions flipped to net short in the final week of 2024. The unwinding of these trades has supported the current market moves. Gold was headed for a third weekly gain of roughly 2% as uncertainty around future U.S. policy under President-elect Donald Trump boosted safe-haven demand, especially with the latest comments from Trump on the Panama Canal, Greenland, and Canada. At Saxo, we observed clients generally remaining long on gold, which has increased by approximately 1.2% week on week.
Commodities Weekly: Strong start to 2025


As we enter the final week before US-president elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, markets will continue to be sensitive to the potential impact of new government policies. We will get fresh inflation data in the form of Dec CPIs from US, France, and UK (Weds), Germany (Thurs), Eurozone (Fri). China Q4 GDP is released late on Thursday. German ZEW economic sentiment will also be watched for on Tuesday. And FOMC members are due to speak throughout the week which will provide details of current FED thinking. And finally, Q4 earnings season will begin on Wednesday with results from JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Blackrock and Citigroup.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992