Equities

From highs to lows: Why the market dip is no reason for long-term investors to panic

Jacob Falkencrone

Global Head of Investment Strategy

Key points:

  • Stay disciplined: Despite recent volatility, long-term investors should avoid panic and stick to their investment strategy, as history shows markets often recover from downturns.
  • Look beyond the noise: Market pullbacks are normal. Focus on long-term goals, maintain diversification, and consider the current market dip as a potential opportunity to invest in quality assets at lower prices.
  • Embrace the boring: Defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities can provide stability during market turbulence, proving that "boring" can be the best strategy in uncertain times.

Just a few weeks ago, on February 19th, 2025, the stock market was celebrating fresh all-time highs. Fast forward to today, and the sentiment couldn’t be more different.

The S&P 500 has now dropped around 9% from its peak, with the latest sell-off sending the index down 2.7% on Monday alone. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fared even worse, sliding 4%, while big names like Tesla, Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon saw significant losses.

At the heart of this rapid shift in market mood are growing fears of a US recession. President Donald Trump’s recent comments about the potential for an economic downturn, combined with his administration’s unpredictable tariff strategy, have left investors jittery. This kind of uncertainty often leads to sharp market reactions as investors struggle to make sense of the new risks on the horizon.

"When markets get rough, remember: Boring can be better than thrilling. Defensive plays and steady hands win the long game."

Looking past the noise

While the current market environment might feel unsettling, it's important for long-term investors to focus on the bigger picture. History shows that market volatility is not only normal but expected. An in-depth analysis of the S&P 500’s performance over the past 60 years reveals that, despite average annual drawdowns of 14.4%, the market has delivered an average annual return of 8.7%.

More than half of the years experienced drawdowns exceeding 10%, yet nearly 75% of all years ended in positive territory. These figures reinforce a critical lesson: short-term market movements are often just noise. Investors who focus too much on daily market swings risk making decisions based on emotion rather than strategy. The current situation is a prime example of why staying disciplined and maintaining a long-term perspective is essential for investment success.

"Volatility is a normal part of the investment journey. Those who stay disciplined often find smoother waters ahead."

Why "boring" can be better than "thrilling"

When markets are in turmoil, there is a natural temptation to chase quick gains or react hastily to negative news. However, history suggests that the best approach during market downturns is to focus on the "boring" investments—those in sectors like consumer staples and utilities. These areas of the market tend to perform relatively well during economic slowdowns because they offer products and services that remain in demand regardless of market conditions.

For retail investors, now might be a good time to review their portfolios and ensure they are diversified across different asset classes and sectors. Having a balanced mix of investments not only helps manage risk but also positions portfolios to benefit from eventual market recoveries.

How should investors behave?

  1. Stay invested: The instinct to sell during downturns is natural, but it often leads to locking in losses. Long-term investors benefit from riding out market storms and focusing on their financial goals.

  2. Rebalance your portfolio: Market volatility can shift the balance of your investments. Regularly reviewing and adjusting your portfolio can help maintain your intended risk profile.

  3. Embrace diversification: During uncertain times, diversification is your best friend. Defensive investments, such as dividend-paying stocks or sectors like consumer staples, can add stability.

  4. Avoid knee-jerk reactions: Making investment decisions based on short-term market movements rarely pays off. Instead, focus on your long-term plan and avoid getting caught up in the market’s daily drama.

  5. Look for opportunities: While the market is down 9% from its highs, this could be an opportunity to buy quality assets at lower prices. If your investment strategy involves regular contributions, continue to invest consistently.

The shift from record highs in February to the current market pullback is a reminder of how quickly sentiment can change. However, history and analysis show that volatility is part of investing. By focusing on what you can control, avoiding the noise, and maintaining a long-term perspective, you increase your chances of achieving strong returns over time. Markets may be down, but for disciplined investors, this could be a time to build a stronger portfolio for the future.

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992