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Technical Update - ASML bouncing after earnings but down trend intact
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: ASML beats earnings forecast and bounces from the opening but down trend still intact on both short- and medium-term. 592 is key level to reverse the trend
ASML reported earnings this morning. Stock opened lower but has recovered somewhat. However, the stock price is in a down trend both short- and medium-term
Short-term there is some support at around 542 area.
However, daily RSI is in negative sentiment and needs to close above 60 threshold to reverse that. The Strength Indicator is not showing divergence i.e., the lowest RSI value 26th September is also on the day the lowest value on ASML. That is an indication of likely lower levels for the share price
To demolish the bearish trend a close above 592 is needed. First indication of that scenario to play out would be a close above the upper falling trendline. However, that could be a bit of a struggle to materialise. The 55 daily Moving Average is adding to the overhead resistance
But if ASML does manage to close above 592 the 100 and 200 Moving Averages will be next resistance to overcome
Medium-term ASML is in a downtrend. However, RSI has despite showing divergence not closed below 40 threshold meaning it is still showing positive sentiment.
The 55 and 100 weekly Moving Averages are pointing in each other’s direction indicating underlying indecision of the trend.
If ASML is taking out its 534.40 trough expect a test of support at around 500. The 200 weekly Moving Average will add to the support. A close below 500 could fuel a sell-off down to 400-375 level
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