Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: DAX has taken out key resistance confirming uptrend short- and medium-term. DAX is likely to break above 15K
DAX is at the time of writing trading above resistance at around 14,901. A close above, which seems quite likely, given that RSI has broken above its falling trendline will further add to the bullish picture.
There will still be divergence on RSI however, but that divergence could be traded out in the coming days. (Traded out means that RSI close above previous peak in this case above dashed horizontal line)
DAX is likely to take out 15K which is a psychological level (expect a lot of News headlines) more than a technical level. A move to at least the 1.618 projection of the December correction at around 15,222 is in the cards.
If DAX closes back below 14,653 we could see a set back to around 14,507-14,235 but the uptrend would still be intact. For this uptrend to be reversed short-term a close below 13,564 is needed.
Medium-term DAX has confirmed its uptrend DAX could reach the 0.786 retracement of the 2022 downtrend at around 15,339 which within few cents from the 1.764 projection of the December correction at 13,351.
RSI divergence: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
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