Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: S&P500 / US500 cfd and Nasdaq 100 / USNAS100 cfd confirming uptrends. A minor corrrection could be seen but bullish trend likely going into December
S&P 500 closed yesterday in the gap area above lower part of the gap at 4,375. Strong resistance at around 4,401, the upper border of the gap, is still key for S&P 500 upside momentum.
However, RSI did close above 60 threshold yesterday i.e., in positive sentiment strongly indicating S&P 500 will move higher in coming days there by taking out the 4,401 resistance level.
A close above 4,401 thereby also a close above the 100 daily Moving Average could pave the road to 4,540 going in to December
However, after this strong bounce past two weeks a minor correction could be seen. If closing below 4,317 S&P 500 is likely to slide back to test the 200 Moving Average
US500 cfd did not close its RSI indicator above 60 threshold but is at the time of writing above.
A break above 4,400 could fuel a rally towards 4,466-4,251
A close below 4,314 could see US 500 sliding back to the 200 Moving Average currently around 4,250
Nasdaq 100 has been leading the US stock market higher after it closed above its upper falling trendline a few days ago, and the RSI indicator closed above 60.
A minor correction could be seen to test the 15K levels but trend is up.
All Moving Averages are rising further indicating underlying bullish trend and momentum.
USNAS100 cfd is testing minor resistance at around 15,338. RSI showing positive sentiment indicating the resistance at around 15,525 is likely to be tested shortly. A break above could lead to a rally to July peak around 15,933
A close below 14,848 will reverse the bullish trendDisclaimer
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