Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Chief Investment Strategist
Buying the dip is one of the oldest instincts in investing—but when markets are being hit by policy shocks, forced selling, and macro uncertainty, it can be hard to tell a bargain from a trap.
The recent market turmoil, triggered by sweeping tariffs and amplified by fragile sentiment, has created sharp dislocations in prices across sectors and regions. For investors trying to make sense of the opportunity set, screeners can help surface ideas that may warrant closer inspection.
Here are two types of screens that could help highlight names worth adding to your watchlist—each targeting a different kind of potential opportunity.
This screen looks for companies that appear to have been sold off not because of weak fundamentals, but because of broad-based market stress. In past dislocations, companies with strong balance sheets and consistent profitability often rebounded first—particularly those in defensive sectors or with a global footprint.
The goal here is to isolate companies that are:
This isn’t about hype-driven growth stories. In fact, many of the names here may look “boring”—but in uncertain markets, boring can be beautiful. These are the kinds of companies that rebound first once stability returns. Dividend payers, defensive sectors, and globally diversified industrials often show up here.
For this screener, consider using the below metrics:
Note: For international markets, these thresholds may need to be adjusted downward to reflect different sector norms and accounting standards.
Reference results you might find in this screen right now:
Some of these names may still be in positive territory for the year, but they’ve pulled back from their highs. For investors with multi-year horizons, this type of setup can offer interesting entry points.
Metrics to consider for the screener in this case would be as below. Note that the numbers may have to be adjusted for international markets vs. the US market.
Note: Again, depending on the market, some valuation or profitability metrics may screen lower than US equivalents—even for high-quality businesses.
Reference results showing up in this screen now:
These are companies that were once priced for perfection. Now, with sentiment fragile and multiples contracting, they’re getting closer to what a long-term investor might call “reasonable.”
As always, no screener guarantees success. Some names that look promising on metrics may face real business pressures. A few key risks to keep in mind:
These screens aren’t signals to act immediately—they’re tools to help identify ideas worth watching more closely.
Some companies are being sold off for macro reasons that may pass. Others are high-quality names that have come back to earth. Both could present opportunities—but selectivity, context, and a clear understanding of the risks are as important as ever.
Often, the best investment decisions are the ones you make before the crisis ends.
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