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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - SP500 and Nasdaq 100 struggling to confirm uptrends. See here why
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
- The main US indices and CFD's S&P500/US500 and Nasdaq100/USNAS100 are in the process of building a uptrends
- The key technical indicators are still lacking in confirmation
- RSI must close above the 60 threshold for bullish trend confirmation
S&P 500 closed yesterday above the Ichimoku Cloud (shaeded area) and has established a short-term uptrend (higher high and higher low).
The only thing nmissing is that RSI is closing back above the 60 threshold—circled. If that occurs, the uptrend is further confirmed.
If confirmed, S&P 500 could push higher to 5,383–5,457, which are the 1.382 and 1.618 Fibonacci projections respectively, i.e., approximately 3-6% from current levels.
If RSI fails to close above 60, the uptrend could be cancelled and reversed. S&P 500 could slide back to test key strong support at around 4,953.
An indication of this scenario to play out—after RSI has been rejected at 60—would be an RSI close below its lower rising trendline.
US 500 CFD: RSI is required to close above 60 for uptrend confirmation. If that occurs, US 500 has upside potential to 5,411–5,494.
A break below 5,007, the key support at 4,919 is likely to come under pressure.
A break below 5,007, the key support at 4,919 is likely to come under pressure.
Nasdaq 100 seems to be building an uptrend but must close above the Ichimoku Cloud (shaded area) and the RSI closing above the 60 threshold to confirm it.
If that occurs, there is upside potential to 19,035.
However, if those two technical indicators do not confirm the uptrend and Nasdaq 100 instead slides back, a daily close below 17,800 could fuel a sell-off down to strong support at around 16,963.
US NAS100 CFD seems to be rejected at the upper part of the Cloud, and RSI seems to be rejected at the key threshold at 60.
If US NAS100 closes back below 17,780, a sell-off could push it back down to key support at around 16,965.
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