Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
The China Syndrome
Michael O’Neill
FX Trader, Loonieviews.net
The China Syndrome is the fictional term applied to nuclear reactor components, melting through the earth in the US and landing in China, according to Wikipedia. The China Syndrome can also be used to describe that nation’s response to American tariffs.
On Friday, President Trump complained that China and the European Union have been manipulating their currencies an interest rates lower. China, perhaps not wanting the American president to look foolish, injected liquidity into the banking system on Monday, via the medium-term lending facility. Today, they fixed the yuan at a one-year low against the US dollar. The US trade representative is holding public hearings today and tomorrow on its proposal for tariffs on $16.0 billion worth of Chinese goods.
The US dollar grudgingly weakened in Asia and Europe in response to the improved risk tone, but in New York, the G-10 major currencies were decidedly perkier. The greenback has added to its overnight losses led by a rally in AUDUSD. The Australian dollar may be getting an added boost from anticipation of a jump in inflation readings tomorrow morning but breaking above 0.7440 may be difficult. NZDUSD is tracking AUDUSD moves. USDCAD continues to be undermined by Friday’s robust domestic data. It is getting added support from a rebound in oil prices.
USDJPY rejected gains above 111.20 and is hovering around the 111.00 area. Traders are torn between rising US Treasury yields and risk aversion from China/US trade tensions.
EURUSD bounced between 1.1690 and 1.1720 in New York trading. EURUSD demand because of improved risk sentiment from the equity market rally is being offset by concerns that the European Central Bank will reaffirm its dovish outlook on Thursday.
Wall Street opened with a bang. The NASDAQ is at a record high after rising 0.92% to 7,913.91 this morning. The DJIA and S&P 500 are up 0.57% and 0.67% respectively. Traders are looking for strong earnings reports today from Harley Davidson this morning and AT&T after the close.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)