Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Pi Day and the infinite exit
Michael O’Neill
FX Trader, Loonieviews.net
Summary: GBPUSD is dancing nervously around a broad range as the Brexit process shambles on.
As well as bringing us yet another Brexit vote, this time for a motion to beg the European Union to allow Article 50 to be extended until June 30, today is also 'Pi Day'. Somehow, the Brexit process is the perfect backdrop to our contemplating the infinite, patternless mathematical constant while indulging in the customary slice of pastry.
After all, it just never ends.
Along with the Article 50 extension, Parliament will vote on four amendments, including one that asks for an extension to hold another referendum on Brexit. Another proposes that Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal should not be allowed before Commons again. GBPUSD traders don’t know what to make of the votes, and the currency has traded erratically in a 1.3208-1.3280 range since New York opened.
President Trump is cheering for a no-deal Brexit. He injected himself into today’s debate with a tweet saying “My Administration looks forward to negotiating a large-scale Trade Deal with the United Kingdom. The potential is unlimited!” It was ignored by politicians and traders alike.
The US dollar is a touch firmer from where it opened in New York, but still well down for the week against the major G10 currencies except for the Japanese yen. Today’s US data were a non-event; jobless claims were 229,00 versus 225,000 forecasted while New Home Sales dropped 6.9% in January. EURUSD is grinding lower looking for a break of the intraday uptrend line at 1.1290 and then 1.1275 to extend losses to 1.1220.
Wall Street stocks are modestly higher but traders are struggling to find fresh incentives to get involved They were a tad spooked when the rumoured summit between Chinese president Xi Jinping and Trump was pushed out to sometime in April from sometime near the end of March.
After all, it just never ends.
Along with the Article 50 extension, Parliament will vote on four amendments, including one that asks for an extension to hold another referendum on Brexit. Another proposes that Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal should not be allowed before Commons again. GBPUSD traders don’t know what to make of the votes, and the currency has traded erratically in a 1.3208-1.3280 range since New York opened.
President Trump is cheering for a no-deal Brexit. He injected himself into today’s debate with a tweet saying “My Administration looks forward to negotiating a large-scale Trade Deal with the United Kingdom. The potential is unlimited!” It was ignored by politicians and traders alike.
The US dollar is a touch firmer from where it opened in New York, but still well down for the week against the major G10 currencies except for the Japanese yen. Today’s US data were a non-event; jobless claims were 229,00 versus 225,000 forecasted while New Home Sales dropped 6.9% in January. EURUSD is grinding lower looking for a break of the intraday uptrend line at 1.1290 and then 1.1275 to extend losses to 1.1220.
Wall Street stocks are modestly higher but traders are struggling to find fresh incentives to get involved They were a tad spooked when the rumoured summit between Chinese president Xi Jinping and Trump was pushed out to sometime in April from sometime near the end of March.
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