Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
EURUSD has twice bounced from key strong support at 1.0665, forming a very short-term double bottom formation. For a confirmation of a reversal, a daily close above 1.0765 is required. If that occurs, there is upside potential to around 1.0815, which is around the 0.618 retracement of the June bearish move (red Fibonacci levels) and the 1.618 projection of the double bottom (blue Fibonacci levels).
However, there is strong overhead resistance in the form of a declining 55 daily moving average currently around 1.0765, and above that, there are both the 100 and 200 moving averages around 1.08.
A daily close above 1.0815 could lead to a continued bullish push towards 1.0850 and 1.09.
If EURUSD instead breaks below 1.0665—ideally closing below for confirmation—it will most likely fuel a sell-off down to the next support at around 1.06. If that scenario plays out, it could quite possibly trade lower towards the Q3 2023 low around 1.0448. See weekly chart.
RSI is showing negative sentiment, indicating the breakout is likely to be to the downside. A daily RSI close above 60 is required for a confirmation of a bullish trend.
GBPUSD formed a bullish engulfing candle yesterday, indicating a bottom and reversal. Bouncing from the 55 daily moving average, GBPUSD could push to test the resistance at around 1.2740.
GBPUSD is still above the cloud, and RSI, moving in a falling channel-like pattern, is still showing positive sentiment. An RSI close above its upper falling trendline would be a strong indication of GBPUSD resuming the uptrend. GBPUSD closing above 1.2740 and RSI closing above 60 will confirm the bullish scenario.
A break below 1.2620 is likely to push GBPUSD down to support at around 1.2562, where the 200 daily moving average will add to the support strength.
A daily close below could see GBPUSD dropping to around 1.25–1.2450
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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