Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
UK Gilt bounce seems to have hit resistance at the 0.618 retracement at around 108.59 forming a possible rising wedge pattern on daily time period.
If Gilt breaks below the lower rising trendline it could fuel a sell off down to support around 100. There is support at around 101.85.
RSI is still positive with no divergence indicating we could see another push higher possibly to the 0.786 retracement at 113.54. 200 daily SMA coming down will provide resistance.
Medium- to longer term view: RSI still negative with no divergence supporting further bearish outlook. If Gilt closes the week below 105.21 it will have formed a Bearish Engulfing top and reversal candle.
If that plays out RSI is likely to break back below 40 resulting in selling pressure to return pushing Gilt towards the 100 level possibly lower.
GBPUSD is forming what looks like a rising wedge on daily time period, not yet confirmed though as there is still upside potential to strong resistance at 1.23. However, the 200 daily SMA will provide resistance.
If GBPUSD closes below the lower rising trendline there is short-term downside risk to 1.1530-1.1360. RSI is still positive testing its rising trendline. A close below the trendline in combination with a close below the price trend line will indicate a correction is playing out.
Support at 1.1767 and strong support at 1.1144.
A move above 1.2153 will test the strong resistance at around 1.23
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)