Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Technical Update - USDJPY, EURJPY & GBPJPY breaking higher. AUDJPY range bound
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Mixed trends on JPY pairs:
USDJPY in uptrend, eyeing 146.60 and 148 levels
EURJPY above key strong resistance at 158, eyeing 160-162 levels
AUDJPY in corrective downtrend. Could be caught range bound
GBPJPY above key resistance. Could rally to 188-189
USDJPY has broken above key resistance at around 145 continuing its uptrend. RSI is showing positive sentiment with no divergence supporting the bullish view of a possible move to the 1.382 projection at 148.
Weekly chart USDJPY is continuing in its rising channel closing in on the 0.786 retracement at 146.60 where a correction could be seen.
If USDJPY slides back below 141.50 the uptrend picture has been demolished.
EURJPY has after several attempts broken above the 158 strong resistance.
RSI is back above the 60 threshold indicating higher EURJPY levels.
There is no strong resistance until around 169 but, whether it will reach that level not seen since 2008 is debatable.
A short-term target would be the 1.382 projection at 160.60 would be more likely. However, a push to the 1.618 projection at around 162.15 is in the cards
A close below 155.50 could push USDJPY back down to 152.50-152.00
AUDJPY is rejected at the 55 daily Moving Average and the upper falling trendline.
If the JPY cannot close above the trendline the bearish correction is likely to continue with another attempt at the support at around 91.75.
A close above the falling trend line the resistance at 95.85 would be key. A close above 95.85 is needed for AUDJPY to turn bullish with potential to take out the June peak at around 97.67.
The positive RSI is indicating AUDJPY could reverse its short-term corrective picture but RSI needs to close above 60 threshold to confirm that. First indication of that scenario to unfold would be if RSI is closing above its falling trendline and AUJPY is closing above its falling trendline
A more likely scenario is that AUDJPY will be caught range bound between 92 and 95 next 1-2 weeks.
GBPJPY has broken above its resistance at around 184. The JPY pair seems set for a move to the 1.618 projection and strong resistance at around 188.80. a resistance level that goes back to 2016
RSI is back above the 60 threshold supporting the bullish picture.
If GBPJPY closes below 180.15 the bullish picture is demolished
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)