Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Key Stories from the past week: All time highs and lows
Saxo
It was a week of historical significance as the German Bundestag approved a major increase in government borrowing, including an overhaul of debt rules. The Turkish Lira fell to a record low vs US dollar as Istanbul's mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, a key rival to President Erdogan, was detained on fraud and terror charges. While gold hit a fresh record above $3055 an ounce in response to a softer dollar and lower bond yields after the FOMC’s projected slower US growth and higher tariff-related inflation, raising the fear of stagflation.
The Fed waits for clarity
The Fed held policy rates in 4.25%-4.50% target range as expected citing uncertainty around the economic outlook resulting in weaker growth, rising unemployment, and higher inflation. The dot plot showed Fed officials expect 50bps of cuts this year. The uncertainty has led markets to believe the Fed will cut further with markets pricing 70bps by end of year.
March FOMC
Tariffs stretch metal prices
New York copper futures hit record high this week of $5.14/lb due to global trade dislocation triggered by Trump's tariffs. Traders were rushing copper to the US, thereby tightening the rest of the world ahead of tariffs. In London the LME price reached $10,000/ton
Copper surges on arbitrage opportunity
BYD charging breaktrough
While Tesla brand value continue to suffer, shares of EV maker BYD jumped this week. BYD unveiled a fresh line-up of electric vehicles supported a new battery and charging system that can provide around 400 kilometers of range in 5 minutes and make it almost as quick as to refuel a gasoline car.
5-minute EV charge times are a blow to Tesla
Nike, not quite at the races
Nike reported Q3 earnings that showed the company's ongoing turnaround effort is being drawn-out due to challenges with inventory clearance. The company furthermore expects revenue and profitability to decline due to US tariffs on products from China and Mexico.
Nike beat earnings and sales. Why the stock is down
Next week includes the announcement of the Australian federal budget (Tuesday) and the UK Chancellor’s ‘Spring Forecast’ (Wednesday). Economic data to look out for includes European and US PMIs (Monday), US Feb New home sales (Tuesday), US Feb Durable good orders (Wednesday), US Initial Jobless claims (Thursday), US Feb Core PCE price index (Friday). It’s a light week for company earnings but US names Dollar Tree, Chewy (Wednesday), and Lululemon (Thursday) can provide more insight into current consumer strength.
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