Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
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Podcast: Weak Chinese data jolt markets with fresh risk-off sentiment
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Risk-off sentiment is coming back into markets today after disappointing July export figures from China confirming the weakness in the global manufacturing sector and risks to the global economy in the later part of the year. Equity futures are headed lower but in a bigger context still not showing signs of an incoming recession, so the direction in the bond market will be crucial to watch in the coming weeks and months, and especially given the recent curve steepening in US Treasuries. Commodities have lately been doing well due to tight supplies across many key commodities including oil, but some weakness has arrived on the back of disappointing demand linked to China's lack of economic momentum. With the market now pricing six Fed rate cuts by January 2025 we expect gold to come back into focus in the coming months. Finally, we talk about the surprise extra tax on Italian banks, Glencore's whopping 50% decline in EBITDA, and Palantir's positive revenue outlook last night. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income.
Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link.
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