How the US election may impact your portfolio​

Watch this video for a discussion on the 2024 US election with Peter Garnry, Head of the SaxoStrats, and host John J. Hardy. Together, they analyse potential market scenarios linked to who will be victorious in the US election in November, offering insights on investment strategies and sector impacts. This episode equips investors with knowledge to navigate the election's influence on global financial markets.

Welcome to the Saxo 2024 election hub for exclusive content about this year’s US presidential election. At Saxo we are always fascinated by how politics may affect the global financial markets.

As we get closer to this historic election day, we will continue to add podcasts, articles, and videos here. So, be sure to bookmark this page to get continued access to special insights and commentary on what will surely be an unprecedented political event- and how it could potentially affect your investing and trading decisions.

Which sectors will be affected by the election

Different sectors can see a positive impact depending on whether a Republican or Democratic candidate wins the upcoming US presidential election.​

Sectors benefitting from a Democratic presidency:

  • Clean energy
  • Infrastructure
  • Financials and semiconductors

Sectors benefitting from a Republican presidency:

  • European defence
  • US real estate
  • US small caps

Market news

US Election

01 /

  • Gold and silver rally on rising US-Russia tensions

    Commodities

    Gold and silver rally on rising US-Russia tensions

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • US Election aftermath: Why market enthusiasm for Trump has stumbled.

    US Election 2024

    US Election aftermath: Why market enthusiasm for Trump has stumbled.

    John J. Hardy

    Chief Macro Strategist

    The initial celebration of Trump 2.0 suddenly reversed course late last week. We look at why and ask...
  • Trump 2.0 is Getting Nuanced: Tariffs First, Tax Cuts Later

    Macro

    Trump 2.0 is Getting Nuanced: Tariffs First, Tax Cuts Later

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The initial market perception of Trump's second term as pro-growth and inflationary is being reasses...
  • Bond Bull Rally Delayed: What You Need to Know as Yields Rise

    US Election 2024

    Bond Bull Rally Delayed: What You Need to Know as Yields Rise

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • US Election aftermath: Trump 2.0 is here, what now?

    US Election 2024

    US Election aftermath: Trump 2.0 is here, what now?

    John J. Hardy

    Chief Macro Strategist

    Trump 2.0 could prove the most significant political revolution in two generations. This week, we co...
  • Weekly Stock Spotlight: Trump Victory Propels Small-Cap Surge and US Outperformance

    Equities

    Weekly Stock Spotlight: Trump Victory Propels Small-Cap Surge and US Outperformance

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity weekly: Mixed response to Trump 2.0

    Commodities

    Commodity weekly: Mixed response to Trump 2.0

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Replay: Trump won: What now?

    Macro

    Replay: Trump won: What now?

    John J. Hardy

    Chief Macro Strategist

    A replay of our webinar discussing the implications for the US and global economy and markets as we ...
  • Trump 2.0 Playbook – Winners, Losers and What It Means for Big Tech

    US Election 2024

    Trump 2.0 Playbook – Winners, Losers and What It Means for Big Tech

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Trump Victory Rocks Treasuries: Key Insights for Traders

    US Election 2024

    Trump Victory Rocks Treasuries: Key Insights for Traders

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

How are different asset classes impacted by the US Election? 

Asset classes can be impacted by the news leading up to, and the results of, the US Election. Below are key aspects to be aware of when trading different asset classes during a US Election.

Forex (FX)
US elections could sway forex markets, with potential shifts in trade policies influencing currency strengths broadly across regions. 

Commodities
Anticipate changes in the bonds market as election outcomes may alter inflation expectations and fiscal policies, impacting yields and term premiums. 

Bonds
Election results might reshape commodity markets, with trade policies and geopolitical shifts possibly affecting global supply and demand dynamics. 

What you should know

US elections and markets

01 /

  • Managing volatility around the US election

    US Election

    Managing volatility around the US election

    Koen Hoorelbeke

    Investment and Options Strategist

  • 2024 US election: the Senate elections will prove decisive for presidential power

    US Election

    2024 US election: the Senate elections will prove decisive for presidential power

    John J. Hardy

    Chief Macro Strategist

    A US president needs both houses of the Congress on his or her side to exercise real power outside o...
  • Navigating US election scenarios: An investors guide and stock shortlists

    US Election

    Navigating US election scenarios: An investors guide and stock shortlists

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Investors should note that the US presidential election and Congressional elections on Tuesday, Nove...
  • Is your portfolio ready for the US election?

    US Election

    Is your portfolio ready for the US election?

    Saxo

    This year’s US presidential election could market a dramatic shift in US policy, especially if the P...
  • How Harris or Trump wins in 2024

    US Election

    How Harris or Trump wins in 2024

    Saxo

    This piece explains the archaic US Electoral College system and how the winner of the US Presidentia...
  • How US elections have shaped market performance in modern history

    US Election

    How US elections have shaped market performance in modern history

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Market Impact of Democratic vs. Republican Wins

    US Election

    Market Impact of Democratic vs. Republican Wins

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Trump vs Biden: How either presidency will affect US sectors

    US Election

    Trump vs Biden: How either presidency will affect US sectors

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • How the US election may impact your portfolio

    US Election

    How the US election may impact your portfolio

    Saxo

    In this special edition of the Saxo Market Call podcast, as Peter Garnry, Head of SaxoStrats and Equ...
  • The Road to the White House A US 2024 Election Timeline

    US Election

    The Road to the White House A US 2024 Election Timeline

    Saxo

    In November, the U.S. presidential election will engage global investors. We've created an overview ...

Five ways to manage risk ahead of the US Election

As with all major political or macroeconomic events, it is important to manage your investment risk in the lead up to the U.S. election. By adjusting your portfolio, you can mitigate potential risks arising from the election results. Here are five considerations on how to manage your investments as the political landscape evolves:

  • Consider how your portfolio is positioned relative to sectors and regions that may be affected by either party’s victory.
  • Use options to hedge against or speculate on election results.
  • Review how commodities may be influenced by policies and adjust if necessary.
  • Think about currencies, especially those sensitive to US policy changes and consider whether your exposure is aligned with the expected political outcome from whoever you believe will win.
  • In terms of doubt, consider diversifying your portfolio, e.g., using ETFs that focus on sectors that are more or less likely to be impacted by the election outcomes depending on your desired positioning.

A user-friendly, mobile investment platform 

SaxoInvestor provides everything you need to invest quickly and securely in one place. 

Make, manage and research your investments from your desktop, phone and laptop

Get access to Stocks, Mutual Funds, ETFs, and Bonds.

Use Saxo to position your portfolio for the election today​

This collection of articles explores the connection between US elections and the movements of the stock market, providing key insights into how the outcomes of presidential elections in the United States can affect financial markets. It explains the important role political changes play in shaping investment approaches and market trends.

By highlighting the mutual impact of government policies and economic results, the content is crafted to help investors grasp essential ideas that link stock market variations to US election cycles. These articles prepare investors to anticipate and respond to the possible effects of election outcomes on market stability and the success of their investments.

Our aim is to do more than just observe—we want to equip investors with the knowledge they need to navigate the financial markets during election periods. Understanding how investment strategies and US election results can be intertwined is crucial for anyone wanting to make well-informed decisions in a constantly changing economic environment.

01 / 00

    Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
    19th Floor
    Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
    12 Queen’s Road Central
    Hong Kong

    Contact Saxo

    Select region

    Hong Kong S.A.R
    Hong Kong S.A.R

    Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

    Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

    The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

    The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

    Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.