Log in Open account
International
CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. 
Show more
CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX, or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Show less
GL Article US Election M 1280x720 V3

Is your portfolio ready for the US election?

US Election
Saxo Be Invested
Saxo

Summary:  This year’s US presidential election could market a dramatic shift in US policy, especially if the President and both houses of Congress share the same party after the election. With the election outcome quite uncertain, Election Day on November 5 could bring considerable volatility and new trends. Therefore, you should consider whether or how the election could affect your investment strategy.

The 2024 US presidential election stands out due to its unique circumstances: the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, Joe Biden stepping down, Kamala Harris’ quick takeover to name a few. Historically, the connection between election outcomes and markets has been inconsistent, but these dynamics add uncertainty that could translate into the markets. Therefore, it is important to assess whether your portfolio is structured appropriately before and after the showdown between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on 5 November.

Political factors adding complexity

The election’s outcome could affect market behaviour in several ways, particularly due to the current Congress, which is divided between a narrowly Republican-controlled House of Representatives and a narrowly Democratic-controlled Senate. If Trump wins, a Republican majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives is very likely. This would allow him to push his policies through.

On the other hand, if Harris wins in any other way than a near landslide, it will likely be without a majority in both houses because of the Senate election map. Therefore, her ability to pass legislation would be limited. As such, the extent to which the markets will react to the outcome of the election may hinge on who wins.
US election_ In-article image for evergreen article 1200x500
But where does all of this leave you as an investor? What should you do with your portfolio? That depends entirely on what you hold in your portfolio and what your investment strategy is. To try and make sense of it all, here are three things to consider as part of your strategy:

  1. Keep calm and carry on

    If you have a well-diversified portfolio and a long-term investment horizon, your most likely course of action is to just stick to your strategy and keep building a diversified portfolio. If you run to the hills and sell your investments, you risk missing out on chances that could end up costing you compounding returns down the road. As the old saying goes, “time in the market beats timing the market”. 

  2. Prepare your portfolio for volatility  

    If you just have one or a few stocks in your portfolio, you could consider diversifying your portfolio - i.e. spreading your investments across various sectors and regions to mitigate risks. This way you’ll lower your portfolio’s risk related to a specific company or companies and their circumstances.

    There's many ways to diversify your portfolio. One is to buy a host of different stocks, which has its advantages. But it also has the potential disadvantage that it is time-consuming to find these stocks, and portfolios of a modest size cannot gain exposure to more than a few stocks. So, another way to go about it is to invest in ETFs, which are funds that trade like stocks. They can provide broad diversification with a single purchase and at low cost.

  3. Seek election-driven opportunities for investing

    For those with a more adventurous mindset, the election may also present opportunities for targeted investments. Finding sectors that could benefit from the election’s outcome can allow you to capitalise on these opportunities. If looking for opportunities to earn some added election-return fits your investment strategy, you could consider keeping some portion of your portfolio in cash, for example 10-15%. If the rest of your portfolio is well-diversified, this setup means you can grasp opportunities that arise from the election without putting your entire portfolio at risk. 
So, while it’s uncertain how the 2024 election will affect markets, the unique nature of this election adds an element of unpredictability. You need to figure out what you want, if anything, out of the US presidential election and adjust your portfolio accordingly. Stay the course with a diversified or go return-hunting if that’s part of your strategy. In any case, you can read much more about the impact of US elections on financial markets on our platform. 
See our full US election coverage

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
    Read full article
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Read full article
  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
    Read full article
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
    Read full article
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Read full article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
    Read full article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
    Read full article
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
    Read full article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
    Read full article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
    Read full article

Disclaimer

 The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International
Products & pricing
Platforms
Accounts & service
General
Other
Legal

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.