Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Chief Investment Strategist
The US election buzz is heating up and with a historically early conclusion to the intra-party fight for presidential candidacy, the campaigning may begin earlier than usual. In this equity note, we offer our early best-guess attempt to predict what industries or themes will be positively impacted if either former President Donald J. Trump or incumbent president Joe Biden wins the election on November 5.
At this point we are still guessing how the market thinks about the US election. Four years ago, it was not until the first direct debate on TV that the market revealed its positioning. This will most likely happen again in 2024, so as we get closer to election day and get to know more about what the two candidacies will focus on, we may change and/or update the takes on what industries and themes will be affected by whomever eventually takes office on January 20, 2025.