Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
US 2-year Treasury yields have been rejected at the 0.786 retracement at 4.95 but seems to having another go. A break above could push 2-year yields to resistance at around 5% possibly higher.
A daily close above 5% could lift the yields to 5.08 short-term
US 10-year Treasury yields are likely to test minor resistance at 4.70 possibly shooting higher to the 0.786 retracement at 4.75. A correction is likely to follow
However, the trend is bullish supported by positive sentiment - as indicated by the strength indicator RSI - and could move higher towards October 2023 peak at around 5%
US 20-year Treasury yields are currently trading around the 0.618 retracement at 4.88. The trend is bullish supported by RSI indicating 10-year yields are likely to move higher towards the 0.786 retracement and resistance area at around 5.05-5.20
To reverse this bullish trend a close below 4.42 is required