Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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COT: Euro sellers rewarded as dollar rally picks up speed
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Speculators increased bullish dollar bets against nine IMM currency futures by $2 billion to $30 billion, a near three-year high in the week to November 6.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Forex report for the week ending November 6, click here.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Financials report for the week ending November 6, click here.
The change was primarily driven by a 43% increase in the euro net-short to 47k lots or €5.9 billion, a 23-month high. Additional euro selling is likely to have emerged towards the end of last week and not least following the break below €1.13 Monday morning. More on the reasons behind these latest developments in John Hardy’s morning update.
The commodity currencies were bought with the 73% reduction in the CAD resulting in the least bearish position since March. At the equivalent value of $10 billion the JPY remains the most shorted currency despite four consecutive weeks of buying.
Financials:
In fixed income, leveraged funds turned sellers across the curve during a week which captured the strong November payrolls report and renewed trade talk optimism. The net-short position in 2's and 5's both extended to a fresh record.
The DV01 which measures the dollar value of a one basis point move in yield jumped by $9.5 million to $252 million, a six-week high.
In fixed income, leveraged funds turned sellers across the curve during a week which captured the strong November payrolls report and renewed trade talk optimism. The net-short position in 2's and 5's both extended to a fresh record.
The DV01 which measures the dollar value of a one basis point move in yield jumped by $9.5 million to $252 million, a six-week high.
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