Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
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Gold awaits G20 and CNY reaction
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Gold's next moves will be decided by the outcome of the G20 summit and its effects on CNY.
Gold remains rangebound between $1,200 and $1,240/oz with the daily movements being dictated by the dollar, Fed rate hike expectations, stock market movements and a degree of safe-haven demand.
We believe that a dovish December hike from the Federal Open Market Committee will be followed by a maximum of one or two further rate hikes before pausing. This development should help lay the foundation for a reversal of the yearlong dollar rally. In addition we expect continued demand from central banks and ETF investors will support our view that gold should move higher next year.
The timing of a recovery will to a large extent depend on the behaviour of the dollar, not least against the Chinese yuan. Hence the importance of the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires this weekend. Failure to reach an agreement on trade risks sending USDCNY above 7 and gold back below $1,200/oz to search for a new floor.
Gold and the yuan have both been trading sideways for the past couple of months while awaiting further developments in the trade dispute between the US and China.
The timing of a recovery will to a large extent depend on the behaviour of the dollar, not least against the Chinese yuan. Hence the importance of the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires this weekend. Failure to reach an agreement on trade risks sending USDCNY above 7 and gold back below $1,200/oz to search for a new floor.
Gold and the yuan have both been trading sideways for the past couple of months while awaiting further developments in the trade dispute between the US and China.
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