Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access all of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Gold is finding its legs, even against CNY
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Today's Asian session saw USDCNY near the crucial 7.00 level, with the currency's positive correlation to gold now fading in light of the equities rout and the consequent safe haven bid for the yellow metal.
Today's Asian session saw the Chinese yuan touch a 10-year low at 6.9682 versus USD, thereby closing in on the key $7 level.
Gold’s weak performance was until recently tied strongly to the direction of the yuan, which has fallen by 7% so far this year. That correlation is now fading with the rout in equity markets and lower bond yields attracting a safe haven bid. This bid, combined with continued short-covering, has been strong enough to mitigate the headwind from the stronger dollar against most currencies, with JPY being the exception.
Gold’s weak performance was until recently tied strongly to the direction of the yuan, which has fallen by 7% so far this year. That correlation is now fading with the rout in equity markets and lower bond yields attracting a safe haven bid. This bid, combined with continued short-covering, has been strong enough to mitigate the headwind from the stronger dollar against most currencies, with JPY being the exception.
Given gold’s relative strong performance so far this week (+0.8%) despite the stronger dollar (+0.9%) it is likely that resistance at $1,240/oz could be challenged and broken very soon. Not least considering a potential nervous session ahead in stocks following disappointing results from Amazon and Alphabet yesterday.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...