Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
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Technical Update - Gold and Silver still in corrective phase or new downtrend? Platinum building uptrend?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Gold and Silver took out key supports continuing its corrective sell-off. Both precious metals approaching 0.786 retracement levels. Will they be bouncing or continuing its sell-off?
Platinum seems to be be gaining strength and could re-test key resistance. Will it develop an uptrend?
Gold XAUUSD has broken below support and 0.618 retracement at around 2,009 and seems likely to drop to the 0.786 retracement at 1,975
RSI is still in positive sentiment and did not record divergence at the Gold peak a week ago suggesting uptrend could resume.
If Gold is bouncing from the 0.786 retracement and RSI is bouncing from the 40 threshold (or before) Gold is likely to resume uptrend.
However, a spike down to 1,945-1,930 should not be ruled out. However, both 55, 100 and 200 Daily Moving Averages are all rising above the Cloud area illustrating underlying bullish sentiment.
A break back above 2,040 uptrend is likely to be resuming
Silver XAGUSD sell-off is currently testing the upper Cloud area (shaded area) and is likely to be testing the 0.786 retracement at 22.75 shortly.
If bouncing off the 0.786 retracement Silver could see a rebound back to the 24 level. And likely resuming uptrend.
Platinum XPTUSD is bouncing back above the falling trendline and is at the time of writing back above the Cloud. If closing above (the Cloud a bullish move to test the strong resistance at around 952.30 could be seen. A close above could fuel a rally to 990-1,000
RSI is showing positive sentiment and if closing back above 60 threshold the bullish picture will be confirmed.
A close back below the falling trendline on Plainum is likely to get sellers back in control. A break below 889 will confirm that with potential down to November lows around 842 to follow
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