Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Metals establishing bullish trends? Silver, Gold, Platinum, Palladium and Copper
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
- Silver and Gold testing falling trendlines. Could be building foundations for bullish trends
- Silver key resistance at 31.00
- Gold key resistance at 2,368
- Platinum still need to break 1,015 to establish bullish move
- Palladium broken trendline and established bullish trend with potential to 1,100-1,250
- Copper might be cutting short the bearish move before testing support levels. 459 is key resistance
Silver is currently testing its upper falling trendline, the upper part of the cloud, and the 0.382 retracement at 30.08.
The strength indicator RSI is still showing positive sentiment and no divergence and has closed above its upper falling trend, indicating Silver is likely to push higher. If RSI closes back above the 60 threshold, it will further strengthen the technical picture.
A Silver break above its upper falling trendline is likely to lead to a rally to the 0.618 retracement at 31.00.
A close above 31.00 will pave the road towards the previous peak around 32.52, with resistance at around 31.60. If Silver closes above the previous peak, there is no strong resistance until around the 35 area.
For Silver to resume its downtrend, a daily close below 28.55 is required.
Gold XAUUSD is also testing its upper falling trendline in a descending triangle-like pattern, and RSI is currently above its falling trendline. A daily close above both would indicate that Gold is likely moving higher.
If Gold closes above 2,369 and RSI closes above the 60 threshold, Gold is likely to push higher towards the previous all-time high around 2,450.
Resistance at 2,369 and 2,388. A daily close below 2,286 will confirm a bearish trend for Gold
If Gold closes above 2,369 and RSI closes above the 60 threshold, Gold is likely to push higher towards the previous all-time high around 2,450.
Resistance at 2,369 and 2,388. A daily close below 2,286 will confirm a bearish trend for Gold
Platinum XPTUSD has been rejected several times by now at the key resistance at around 1,015. A close above is needed for Platinum to establish a bullish trend with potential to 1,075–1,100.
A close below 975 is likely to fuel a sell-off back down to the 941 level.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment, suggesting the bearish scenario is the likely outcome, but if RSI closes back above 60, the bullish scenario is the likely outcome
A close below 975 is likely to fuel a sell-off back down to the 941 level.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment, suggesting the bearish scenario is the likely outcome, but if RSI closes back above 60, the bullish scenario is the likely outcome
Palladium has broken bullish out of its falling channel pattern and has established a short-term bullish trend.
Currently trading around the 200 daily moving average, Palladium seems set for higher levels.
RSI is showing positive sentiment, supporting the bullish outlook for Palladium.
A close above 1,048 could further fuel the rally higher to the next resistance at around 1,110. A close above that level, Palladium is eyeing the 1,200–1,250 area.
A close below the falling trendline will jeopardize the bullish trend, and a close below 950 will neutralize it.
Currently trading around the 200 daily moving average, Palladium seems set for higher levels.
RSI is showing positive sentiment, supporting the bullish outlook for Palladium.
A close above 1,048 could further fuel the rally higher to the next resistance at around 1,110. A close above that level, Palladium is eyeing the 1,200–1,250 area.
A close below the falling trendline will jeopardize the bullish trend, and a close below 950 will neutralize it.
Copper’s corrective bearish trend seems to have come to an end just above the 100 daily moving average and above the 0.618 retracement at 424.50.
However, the RSI is still showing negative sentiment, meaning Copper could still experience a bearish push down to the 0.618 retracement level at 424.50. A break below 432.90 would confirm that bearish scenario.
For Copper to establish a bullish trend, a daily close above 459 is required. If that scenario plays out, Copper could enjoy a rally up to the 0.618 retracement of the bearish move since mid-May (blue Fibonacci levels) and resistance around 487.
However, the RSI is still showing negative sentiment, meaning Copper could still experience a bearish push down to the 0.618 retracement level at 424.50. A break below 432.90 would confirm that bearish scenario.
For Copper to establish a bullish trend, a daily close above 459 is required. If that scenario plays out, Copper could enjoy a rally up to the 0.618 retracement of the bearish move since mid-May (blue Fibonacci levels) and resistance around 487.
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