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Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
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Technical Update - Uptrend in metals could continue: Gold, Silver, Platinum and Copper
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
- Gold uptrend is weakening but there could still be further upside potential to around 2,490-2,640
- Silver bullish trend could continue to 34-36 area
- Platinum is extremely volatile but has no strong resistance until around 1,130
- Copper uptrend stretched. Expect minor correction. Indicators are pointing to higher levels towards 570-576
- Be very careful if opening new long positions. Trends can suddenly reverse
Gold (XAUUSD) spiked yesterday to an all-time high and an all-time high close. RSI is indicating divergence, suggesting a correction. If a correction occurs, it could be quite limited, possibly down to 2,343, maybe even less.
There could be further upside despite this RSI divergence. The trend is bullish and a push to the 1.382 projection at 2,490 is in the cards. However, a bullish move to the 1.618 projection at 2,527 or even the 1.764 projection at 2,550 should not be ruled out.
On the monthly medium- to longer-term chart, gold has reached the 0.786 extension of the 2016 to 2022 bullish trend and correction (red Fibonacci levels).
The 1.764 projection of the 2020-2022 correction (blue Fibonacci levels) shows there is still room up to the 2.00 projection of that correction at 2,535, maybe even to the 1.00 extension at 2,643 (vertical arrows).
To demolish and reverse this bullish picture, a daily close below 2,277 is required. A close below 2,330 will most likely be the first indication of this reversal scenario to play out.
Silver (XAGUSD) is in a strong bullish trend. Despite being a bit stretched, there is no RSI divergence, indicating silver is likely to push higher, quite possibly to strong resistance at around 34.40–36.40 (see weekly chart).
The 1.382 Fibonacci projection of the 2021-2022 correction is right in the middle of that area at 34.90.
A minor correction should not be ruled out, possibly down to around 30, but for silver to demolish and reverse the bullish trend, a daily close below 26 is required.
Platinum (XPTUSD) reached the 1.764 projection at 1,092 before being hit by a sell-off. However, RSI is in positive sentiment with no divergence, indicating likely higher platinum prices. There is no strong resistance until around 1,130. A break above this level can give energy to resistance at around 1,180. The current correction could dip down to around 1,021–1,015 before resuming the uptrend. A daily close below 1,000 would demolish the short-term bullish picture
Copper uptrend is a bit stretched as illustrated by the RSI divergence and a correction could occur. A correction that could take copper down to 475–468.
However, there is no strong overhead resistance since copper is trading at all-time highs, but if we are using Fibonacci projections, we can estimate some potential price targets if this bullish trend continues. The 1.382 projection of the massive sell-off in Q2-Q3 2022 indicates a possible bullish move to 576.80, which is close to the 2.618 projection of the Q1 2023 to Q4 2023 correction at 570.
A daily close below 446 will demolish and reverse this bullish picture both short and medium-term.
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