Quarterly Outlook
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Technical Update - WTI and Brent Crude oil building uptrend? Henry Hub and Dutch gas testing support, looking lower. Carbon Emission extending decline
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Natural gas continuing its sell-off. Henry Hub has potential to lower levels. Dutch Gas finding support
WTI and Brent Crude oil bouncing, could build uptrend but strong overhead resistance
Carbon Emission continuing its collapse and could drop further
WTI Crude oil has bounced from its lower rising trendline.
RSI is showing positive sentiment indicating WTI could move higher. However, there is strong overhead resistance around 79.29-79.77 combined with the 200 DMA and the declining 100 DMA, and the upper part of the Cloud.
A close above 79.29 will confirm uptrend. Resistance at around 82.56
A close below 71.40 will demolish the bullish scenario and establish a downtrend with potential to around 68
Brent Crude oil has bounced from 77.50 level to be trading around the 200 DMA. Daily RSI is in positive sentiment indicating higher oil prices.
However, there is strong overhead resistance; the 100 DMA is declining and there is strong resistance at around 84.75. A close above 84.75 will confirm bullish trend.
Resistance at around 87.35
A break below 76.60 will demolish the potential bullish scenario and likely sending Brent oil down to around 72 area
Henry Hub Natural Gas has experienced a total collapse past four weeks and is now trading at levels not seen since 2020.
The Natural Gas contract can drop further before finding support at around 1.69 and 1.54
Dutch TTF Gas is trading in a range between 31 and the strong support going back to July 2023 at 26.50
If breaking bearish out there is downside risk to around 24.
A bullish break out could see Dutch gas rebounding to 35.80-37.50
Emission has collapsed almost 50% since Q2 2023 peak now testing the upper part of the Consolidation area 58-5. RSI is in negative sentiment indicating likely lower Emission prices. A bearish move down to 54-50 i.e. the middle and lower part of the Consolidation area could be seen.
To demolish and pause this bearish scenario a close above 66 is needed
To demolish and pause this bearish scenario a close above 66 is needed
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