Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access all of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - WTI and Brent Crude oil trying to build uptrends. Henry Hub gas crawling higher with Dutch gas struggling
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: WTI and Brent crude oil bouncing from retracement level. Can the establish bullish trend or be failing once again?
Henry Hub gas established uptrend, but it is fragile with Indicator not confirming. Will It slide back?
Dutch Gas bouncing from strong support but strong resistances overhead
WTI Crude oil bounced off the 0.786 retracement at 69.52 and currently testing the 0.618 retracement, close to testing the upper falling trendline. If that scenario plays out followed by a close above 76.18 an uptrend has been confirmed with a likely move to 1.382 projection at 78.81, possibly spiking up to test the strong resistance at around 79.11
An RSI close above 60 will confirm a bullish scenario
Brent Crude oil retraced almost 0.786 of the late December bullish move. Currently testing the 0.618 retracement the upper falling trendline could very well be tested.
A break above is likely leading to a move to December peak at around 81.72. A close above is likely to push Brent to the 1.382 projection at around 81.30
An RSI close above 60 will confirm a bullish scenario
If Brent is sliding back taking out 74.81 selling pressure is likely resuming pushing Brent to test 72 once again
Dutch TTF Gas has bounced off support at around 30.50. However, whether the Gas contract can establish a bullish trend is still up in the air. Minimum requirement is for Dutch Gas to close above 37.60.
A break above the upper falling trendline would be first indication of the strong resistance at 37.60 is to be tested
A daily close above 37.60 is likely to push the Gas price higher towards 40.25 possibly spiking to around 43.
If Dutch gas breaks back below 30.50 a sell-off down to around 22.85 is in the cards
Henry Hub Gas is currently testing the 0.382 retracement of the October-November sell-off at 2.77. An uptrend has been established and if RSI is also closing above 60 threshold it will further be confirmed with likely higher gas prices to follow.
Next strong resistance at around 2.95.
The declining 55 and 100 DMA’s will add to the overhead resistance.
If Henry Hub gas is failing is failing to close above 2.77 combined with RSI failing to close above 60 the gas contract is likely to slide back to the 2.50 area. A close below 2.41 bear trend is resuming
Next strong resistance at around 2.95.
The declining 55 and 100 DMA’s will add to the overhead resistance.
If Henry Hub gas is failing is failing to close above 2.77 combined with RSI failing to close above 60 the gas contract is likely to slide back to the 2.50 area. A close below 2.41 bear trend is resuming
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...