Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Trump tweet sends crude prices lower
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: A new tweet from President Trump has sent oil prices a tick lower, although fundamentals remain robust.
Crude oil losses extended following the second oil-related tweet from President Trump this year. Ahead of the deadline for extending or rescinding waivers given to buyers of Iranian oil, he is looking to the other Opec members for support. By asking for more barrels to be produced, he would be able to squeeze Iran more without risking additional oil price strength.
Coming after five failed attempts to break above $60/barrel this past week and following yesterday’s US inventory rise, we may see some additional weakness in the short-term. Overall fundamentals, however, remain strong and it would take renewed growth worries and lower equities before the uptrend is challenged.
A break below $57.80/b, recent highs and trendline from the December low may attract some additional long liquidation, not least considering that the 55 million barrels bought by hedge funds in the week to March 19 will be underwater at those levels.
Coming after five failed attempts to break above $60/barrel this past week and following yesterday’s US inventory rise, we may see some additional weakness in the short-term. Overall fundamentals, however, remain strong and it would take renewed growth worries and lower equities before the uptrend is challenged.
A break below $57.80/b, recent highs and trendline from the December low may attract some additional long liquidation, not least considering that the 55 million barrels bought by hedge funds in the week to March 19 will be underwater at those levels.
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