Stronghold EUR: lower risk in September and negative yield advantage

Stronghold EUR: lower risk in September and negative yield advantage

5 minutes to read
Peter Garnry

Chief Investment Strategist

Summary:  Stronghold EUR delivered 0.2% return in September compared to 0.7% for the benchmark as higher rates negatively impacted the portfolio. During September and early October the model has reduced exposure in momentum equities as the volatility structure in this asset class has changed for the worse as a result of the mini-crash in US momentum equities during September. The model has added the global properties asset class for the first time since inception.


September was a more difficult month for the Stronghold EUR delivering only 0.2% compared to 0.7% for the benchmark portfolio as rates climbed on the backdrop of higher risk sentiment by global investors. The Stronghold EUR portfolio is up 12.1% as of September compared to the benchmark up 3.5% in the same period. The model’s significant exposure to minimum volatility equities and long duration bonds have contributed to performance on a relative and absolute basis. The annualized Sharpe ratio is currently 0.9 and this year’s performance relative to the benign drawdown in Q4 2018 is among the better when we compare the model against its peers. Clients have noticed this leading to material client net inflow into the strategy in Q3 2019.

Source: Saxo Bank

The strategy has a reference benchmark consisting of 65 % global government bonds (EUR-hedged) and 35 % developed market equities (EUR hedged). Stronghold performance includes trading costs and management fee. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments will fluctuate and can go down as well as up. A loss of capital may occur.


During September the model slightly reduced risk in the portfolio reducing its exposure in momentum equities as the mini-crash in US momentum equities caused the volatility structure to change. In early October the model has further reduced exposure in momentum equities and increased the government exposure while for the first time since the portfolio went live added exposure to the global properties asset class.

Currently the portfolio has 40.3% of its weight in government bonds and equities only stand at 32% the lowest exposure since late May. But as the chart with asset class weights over time shows the portfolio changes have been smooth except for Q4 last year and the portfolio has not yet experienced changing its overall exposure profile to a very defensive portfolio. The volatility structure remains still very balanced, but this could change fast in Q4 with the potential negative fallout from Brexit and US-China trade negotiations. 

Source: Saxo Bank
Source: Saxo Bank

In several discussions with potential clients, that want a defensive portfolio because they believe the economy is likely going into a recession or just want to protect capital from large swings, we constantly highlight the fact that government bonds yield so little these days that a defensive portfolio today is most likely to deliver negative expected real returns after fund costs. The $17trn worth of negative yielding bonds have effectively killed the strategic defensive portfolio.

The Stronghold EUR portfolio offers a tactical approach to asset allocation only taking risks in equities when the volatility structure allows it. On the other hand, the portfolio will go ultra-defensive in a 2008 crisis repeat where correlations across everything rose dramatically offering little diversification effects. Many clients then say why would I be in negative yielding assets if that scenario happens? Our view is that -1% over 12 months is better than potentially -20% due to excessive exposure in equities during a recessionary period.

The key risks for the Stronghold EUR portfolio at this point are significantly higher rates which would create losses in the bond part of the portfolio. The portfolio also has unhedged USD exposure through its exposure to minimum volatility equities and should the USD suddenly drop in value this will have a negative impact on performance. A rapidly changing volatility structure could also create losses in the portfolio as the model cannot predict changes but only react intelligently after the fact.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...


Business Hills Park – Building 4,
4th Floor, office 401, Dubai Hills Estate, P.O. Box 33641, Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.