Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access all of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - ASX 200, Hang Seng and China A50
3 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: ASX 200 bounced from 7K. Bull trend could resume
Hang Seng uptrend continues but a minor correction could occur
China A50 close to test key resistance at 13,500. Make or break ?
S&P ASX 200 bounced from 6,900 breaking bullish out of its short-term falling channel formation. Trend is still down however and remains so until ASX200 can close above 7,167.
RSI showing negative sentiment after it closed below 40 threshold 3rd January and if ASX 200 slides back below 7K the down is set to resume with the index likely to drop to strong support at around 6,785.
If ASX 200 closes above 7,167 it is likely to move higher to test December highs.
Hang Seng got rejected at the upper rising trend line in the rising channel formation the Index has been trading in the past couple of months. The uptrend is still intact though and with positive RSI and no divergence there Is still room for further upside to strong resistance at 22,415.
However, a correction should be expected where Hang Seng is likely to test the lower rising trendline.
Weekly RSI closed above 60 indicating Hang Seng could move higher in coming weeks. If Hang Seng breaks above 22,450 the uptrend could extend to 25K. For Hang Seng to reverse the medium-term uptrend a close below 19,300 is needed.
FTSE China A50 (Future) is close to test the resistance at around 13,500. It is also testing the upper falling medium-term trendline – see weekly chart. If closing above both the short-term uptrend is extended and medium-term trend is confirmed to be up. 200 weekly SMA and especially 15K will be strong resistance levels for A50.
However, RSI hasn’t yet closed above 60 on the weekly meaning the strength indicator could cut the uptrend short. Just a minor warning to keep an eye on.
If A50 slides back to close below 12,696 the uptrend has been reversed.
RSI divergence: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...