Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: European stock market Indices struggling for upside momentum despite some of them have performed new highs.
Uptrends in DAX/GER40 and AEX25/NETH25 intact but weakening.
BEL20/BELG, CAC40/FRA40 and FTSE100/UK100 on the verge to turn bearish.
FTSE250 has resumed bearish trend
DAX seems to struggle in following through with its higher close last week. RSI is showing divergence i.e., not really supporting the uptrend.
The uptrend is intact though and will stay intact until a close below 15,625. The 1.638 projection at 16,600 is the short-term target.
However, a close below 15,909 is likely to be the signal saying DAX is not going to move higher and that DAX could drop to test 15,625
FTSE250 has resumed down trend. If RSI closes below 40 the selling is likely to accelerate towards support at around 18,396.
To reverse the downtrend a close above 19,300 is needed.
AEX25 Closed last week above key resistance at 770 but has been struggling to gain upside momentum and so far failed breaking above the February peak at 777.50.
Testing the 770 today, a close below could result in a slide back down to test the lower rising trendline and the 100 and 55 daily Moving Averages.
Lower peak last week on the RSI resulting in divergence is suggesting AEX maybe can’t move much higher.
It seems as if AEX needs to break the February peak, thereby canceling the RSI divergence to get that upside momentum.
Strong resistnace at around 802.
BEL20 broke above its falling trend line but couldn’t follow through, failing to close above resistance at 3,669.
Now back below the falling trendline and RSI close to break back below 40 is a sign of weakness. A weakness that is likely to send
BEL20 down to test support at around 3,523.
For BEL20 to reverse this bearish scenario a close above 3,669 is needed.
CAC40 closed Friday the GAP with a close above 7,379.
But the break is not convincing. RSI is still showing negative sentiment, it needs to close above 60 to revers that.
If CAC40 slides back below 100 Moving Average and closes below 7,246 the downtrend has resumed with a likely sell-off down to 7K.
First indication of the bearish trend to resume is likely to be and RSI close below its lower rising trendline
For CAC40 to gain upside momentum a close above the Friday’s peak at 7,404 is needed followed by an RSI close above 60. If that plays out All-time highs is likely to be tested
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