Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access all of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - EuroStoxx50/EU50 and DAX/GER40 could be resuming uptrend after bounce
Equities 3 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
- A close below support at 4,976 for the EuroStoxx 50 could prove to be a false break. A daily close above 5,053 will confirm this.
- The EU50 CFD has closed above the key support at 4,966 twice and could resume its uptrend with a close above 5,052
- The DAX's bounce from key support at 17,900 suggests the uptrend could resume. A crucial factor will be whether it can negate the top and reversal pattern, with resistance at 18,326 being pivotal
- For the GER40 CFD, the key resistance is at 18,328, and key support is at 17,862
The EuroStoxx50 Index closed Thursday below the support level at around 4,976, suggesting a possible confirmation of a corrective downtrend.
However, today's bounce indicates the potential for this to be a false break. If the Index closes above 5,053 and the RSI closes back above the 60 threshold, it would support a scenario where the recent break was misleading and an uptrend might resume.
Despite the positive signals, the bearish engulfing top and reversal pattern remains intact and a concern. This pattern will stay valid until there is a daily close above 5,122. A close above 5,053 would be a strong indication that the top and reversal pattern wiill be challenged, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.
Should the EuroStoxx50 Index drop again and close below 4,976, it is likely to trigger a sell-off towards the support level at around 4,888.
The EU50 CFD has twice spiked below support at 4,966 only to close above, and it seems likely to resume an uptrend. A daily close above 5,052 and an RSI close above the 60 threshold will confirm this scenario.
Yesterday, the DAX tested the lower rising trendline and key support at around 17,900 but managed to close above it. With today's bounce, the DAX could resume its uptrend. The RSI is still exhibiting positive sentiment with no divergence. Combined with a potential close above its falling trendline, this is indicating that the DAX could resume its uptrend.
If the DAX closes above 18,326 and the RSI closes above the 60 threshold, this scenario will be confirmed.
Should the DAX close below 17,900, the rebounding scenario is likely to be demolished, with the DAX likely to sell-off down to 17,620
The GER40 CFD bounced strongly in late trading yesterday and seems likely to resume an uptrend. A daily close above 18,328 or an RSI close above the 60 threshold, whichever comes first, will confirm that this scenario is likely to play out.
Conversely, a daily close below 17,862 will confirm a downtrend with potential down to around 17,612.
Conversely, a daily close below 17,862 will confirm a downtrend with potential down to around 17,612.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...