Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - FTSE 100 and FTSE 250
2 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: British Big Cap Equities are moving higher pushing FTSE 100 closer and closer to all-time highs. No strong resistance until then
Mid-Caps struggling to break deadlock rejected a fourth time at strong resistance level. Indicators suggest FTSE 250 could have another go at the resistance but it is not convincing
FTSE 100 has spiked higher this morning to the 1.382 Fibonacci Projection of the December correction. A minor correction could be seen over the next couple of days. But the trend is up both short- and medium-term and there is room up to all-time highs (from 2018) at around 7,903. Which is also the 2.00 projection of the December correction.
A close below 7,434 will reverse the uptrend short-term
FTSE 250 has been rejected this Monday morning at the resistance at 19,615. Which is the fourth time since September. The Mid-Cap Index could experience a couple of days set-back down to around 19K before another attempt at the 19,615 resistance. If FTSE 250 closes above we could see a rally to 20,467 maybe spiking above 20,500 to the 1.618 projection of the December correction.
RSI is back above 60 threshold with no divergence supporting the uptrend scenario.If FTSE 250 slides back to close below the upper short-term falling (black) trendline selling pressure could intensify. A close below 18,493 will reverse the uptrend.
RSI divergence: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
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