Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Goldman Sachs GS has broken bearish out of its medium-term symmetrical triangle like pattern – see weekly chart – but still staying above the 200 weekly Moving Average and support at around 301.87.
If closing below the support at 301.87 weekly RSI is also likely to close below 40 thereby confirming bearish trend medium-term. Weekly RSI is in fact in negative sentiment after closing below the 40 threshold in March - circled.
Key support at around 278.15
Bank of America BAC has been in a bearish trend for more than a year and doesn’t seem to be over just year. Further decline to strong support at around 23.15 seems likely.
However, there is divergence on RSI indicating the bearish trend is weakening. It should be noted however, that divergence – or imbalance – can go on for quite some time before market reverses.
A close above 29.45 will demolish the bearish picture but to reverse it a close above 32.85 is needed