Log in Open account
UAE
CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
Show more
CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX, or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Show less

Technical Update - Nvidia, ARM and Super Micro below key supports. Selling pressure likely to continue

3 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

AI related semiconductors hit by heavy selling after breaking key support levels.

Nvidia below 822 key support at 822 could see further down side to 700, possibly lower.
ARM Holdings no strong support until around USD 77
Super Micro Computer eyeing 600, but no strong support until around 492

Bullish correction should be expected but be careful, you could be trying to catch a falling knife


Nvidia. After testing key supports — the gap area — a few times, it finally gave in on Friday. Nvidia was hit by a massive sell-off on Friday, down 10%.

This comes after Nvidia formed two Bearish Engulfing candlesticks, which are strong indications of a top and reversal, and created a double top pattern in the process. The double top was confirmed

On Friday, Nvidia sold off to the 1.618 projection of the double top pattern but could push lower in the coming days.
A bearish move to support at around 742 seems likely.

A daily close below 742 could ignite another wave of selling down below 700, with no strong support until around 661.60. If Nvidia closes below the Cloud area (the shaded area), it will add to the bearish picture.

The RSI closed on Friday below the 40 threshold, further confirming the bearish trend indicating lower levels for Nvidia.

To negate this bearish picture, a daily close above 841 is required.

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group
ARM Holdings formed a Descending triangle like patter. Such a pattern can both be a continuation and a reversal pattern.
In this case it has become a reversal pattern after closing below 120.

The selling has continued to push ARM below the upper boundary of the big gap area from February. There is now no strong support until at around USD 77.

ARM is trading below all daily moving average and RSI is showing negative sentiment with no divergence indicating lower levels for ARM are likely in coming days/weeks

Short-term rebounds could be seen but to negate this bearish picture a daily close above 115.20 is minimum requirement
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) was rejected at its upper falling trendline and has now been hit with heavy selling, passing through the minor support at around 855 to just above support at around 698.

SMCI closed Friday below the Cloud area (shaded area) which is a strong indicating of SMCI in bearish trend, and the RSI below the 40 threshold, confirming the downtrend that is likely to see lower levels.

A daily close below 698 could push SMCI down to around 600, where the 100 daily moving average will offer some support.

However, a bearish move down to the 1.382 projection of the top and reversal-like pattern (it resembles a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern) at around 492.59, close to where the 200 daily moving average is currently moving, could be seen over the next couple of weeks.

However, some bullish corrections should be expected, but to negate the bearish picture, a daily close above 1,000 is the minimum requirement.

Disclaimer: Author of this analysis is short position in ARM

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
    Read full article
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Read full article
  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
    Read full article
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
    Read full article
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Read full article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
    Read full article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
    Read full article
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
    Read full article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
    Read full article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
    Read full article

Disclaimer

 The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)


Business Hills Park – Building 4,
4th Floor, office 401, Dubai Hills Estate, P.O. Box 33641, Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE
Products & pricing
Platforms
Accounts & service
General
Other
Legal

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.