Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: The Commitments of Traders reports highlight speculators positions and changes made during the week to July 7 in FX, bonds and stocks. Appetite for risk during this U.S. holiday shortened week was firm with the Nasdaq 100 rising by 3.6% while the dollar weakened against its peers.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
Hedge funds and other large speculators were small net sellers of dollars against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar Index in the week to July 7. Despite broad dollar weakness, which saw the Dollar index lower by 0.5%, the short only increased by 2% to $15.5 billion.
Mixed flows saw speculators buy EUR, GBP, CAD and AUD while selling JPY and MXN