FX Breakout Monitor: Blue Monday for breakout traders

Today’s FX Breakout monitor

Page 1: after last Thursday’s EURUSD break, we have yet to see follow-through lower. Elsewhere, the focus is on especially EURJPY and possibly AUDJPY as breakout candidates. Interesting to note AUDCAD trying to break higher on a day when AUDNZD is registering yet another new low.

Page 2: EURNOK offered a dose of whiplash as last Friday’s new high close (an ugly one, given the shooting star candlestick to close the day) was rejected strongly today on a strong Norway CPI. Elsewhere on Page 2, we see little fresh directional interest.

Chart: EURJPY

We added EURJPY to our watchlist on Friday and the pair narrowly missed a new 19-day close. Nominally, the 19-day low close is less interesting than a close clear of the 124.00 which has supported the price action since the brief meltdown at the beginning of the year.

REFERENCE: FX Breakout Monitor overview explanations

The following is a left-to-right, column by column explanation of the FX Breakout Monitor tables.

Trend: a measure of whether the currency pair is trending up, down or sideways based on an algorithm that looks for persistent directional price action. A currency can register a breakout before it looks like it is trending if markets are choppy.

ATR: Average True Range or the average daily trading range. Our calculation of this indicator uses a 50-day exponential moving average to smooth development. The shading indicates whether, relative to the prior 1,000 trading days, the current ATR is exceptionally high (deep orange), somewhat elevated (lighter orange), normal (no shading), quiet (light blue) or exceptionally quiet (deeper blue).

High Closes / Low Closes: These columns show the highest and lowest prior 19- and 49-day daily closing levels.  

Breakouts: The right-most several columns columns indicate whether a breakout to the upside or downside has unfolded today (coloured “X”) or on any of the previous six trading days. This graphic indication offers an easy way to see whether the breakout is the first in a series or is a continuation from a prior break. For the “Today” columns for 19-day and 49-day breakouts, if there is no break, the distance from the current “Quote” to the break level is shown in ATR, and coloured yellow if getting close to registering a breakout.

NOTE: although the Today column may show a breakout in action, the daily close is the key level that is the final arbiter on whether the breakout is registered for subsequent days.