FX Breakout Monitor: EM and gold moving the most

The gold move extended aggressively today, but one of the biggest moves relative to recent volatility was in the ruble, as we look at below. And we continue to watch USDJPY for signs of a full reversal back lower as last week’s breakout hasn’t let to follow through higher and has seen deep backfilling amidst a backdrop of weak risk sentiment and strong safe haven bonds.

Today’s Breakout Highlight: USDRUB
Besides gold, the largest mover on the day in relative volatility terms was the Russian ruble in our universe, as the ruble exploded above 64.00 as it more firmly took out the 200-day moving average and likely on the pronounced further weakness in crude oil prices on top of the weak risk sentiment to start the week. As well, it is worth noting that the crude oil forward curve remains below the current spot price out into 2022, so the market is expecting weak demand to stretch a way over the horizon for now. The ruble was a popular carry trade until earlier this year so there may be plenty more downside risk from a positioning angle if oil prices continue lower from here.