Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access all of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
FX Breakout Monitor: USD breaking higher in slow motion
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Summary: The US dollar is breaking higher in places, but is doing so in slow motion, perhaps lacking conviction on any directional move until the other side of the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. Market volatility remains moribund and another sign of the market finding directional trades difficult was the reversal of the attempt to take sterling higher today.
Today’s Breakout monitor
The FX Breakout Monitor is a concise PDF overview of all current and recent price breakouts for the short and medium term for major FX pairs and spot silver and gold.
A PDF of today’s Breakout Monitor
Below is a snapshot of the full list of currency pairs we track for the breakout monitor. Much of the USD strength today is as much about euro weakness in the wake of the ECB meeting, as EURUSD helped USDSEK and USDNOK to new local high closes as well without much interest in EURNOK or EURSEK on the side. Besides a USDTHB in EM, the only other active break at the moment is EURCHF.
One other currency that bears watching in coming days is the Japanese yen, especially in connection with any further risk contagion from the coronavirus story, which has only seen very weak transmission into currencies. It is a difficult issue to quantify for markets, but suspect the ongoing bid in safe haven treasuries is one indicator suggesting some level of concern. EURJPY is the JPY pair closest to having a look at new downside breaks.
Today’s Breakout Highlight: EURUSD
EURUSD continues to move in slow-motion after breaking to new lows for the year in the wake of the ECB meeting, and next week sees the FOMC meeting up on Wednesday, which may either confirm or reject this latest break. In the bigger picture – the 1.1000 level looks more important than the level just broken ahead of the final cycle lows. Traders looking for momentum in this pair have been regularly burned over the last eighteen months or more, but this record low volatility may not last for long.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...