Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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FX Breakout Monitor: USD bullish reversals abound
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Summary: Among major USD pairs, most have simply seen the USD rejecting recent bearish developments, though AUDUSD and USDJPY are actually close to new momentum breakout levels ahead of the US December jobs report tomorrow.
Today’s Breakout monitor
The FX Breakout Monitor is a concise PDF overview of all current and recent price breakouts for the short and medium term for major FX pairs and spot silver and gold.
Below is a snapshot of the full list of currency pairs we track for the breakout monitor. The only USD pair to actually post a new 19-day low has been USDSEK, which did so yesterday, but a number of others, including AUDUSD and USDJPY, are getting close as we look towards tomorrow’s US December jobs data.
The recent JPY strength has turned sharply to weakness as the US-Iran has seen a tremendous spike higher and reversal in global safe haven bond markets. USDJPY is trading very close to the cycle highs here as we discuss below, not just the 19-day highs, which is the case in all of the other USD pairs where the USD is looking higher. Elsewhere, the new lows in the USDMXN today are a testament to the strength in MXN, while EURCHF has curiously sat out the interesting in shorting the lowest yielding currencies and CHF has failed to correlate at all with a struggling JPY. It is clear that EM currencies prefer to celebrate strong risk appetite rather than fretting the strong US dollar.
Today’s Breakout Highlight: USDJPY
USDJPY turned sharply back higher in sympathy with the weakness in global safe haven bonds and could be set for a run above 110.00 if yields continue to rise on solid or better US jobs data with tomorrow’s December jobs report.
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