No surprises from NFP No surprises from NFP No surprises from NFP

No surprises from NFP

Forex 4 minutes to read
MO
Michael O’Neill

FX Trader, Loonieviews.net

Summary:  The US nonfarm payrolls report didn’t offer up any surprises this morning. NFP rose 196,000 (forecast 180,000) while the unemployment rate was unchanged.


Markets were expecting the March data to rebound from February and today’s data fit the bill. Nevertheless, it was the only game in town, and traders bought US dollars against the commodity bloc currencies. As of 1350 GMT, EUR, CHF and JPY are unchanged from the New York open.

USDCAD got a double boost: one from the US data and another from the weaker than expected Canadian data. Canada lost 7,200 jobs in March which wasn’t far off of estimates and widely expected. On a positive note, Statistics Canada reported that employment rose by 116,000 or 0.6% in the first quarter of 2019, which for Canada is a stellar result.

Wall Street is trading with small gains thanks to today’s NFP data and the latest news around the China/US trade talks. President Trump sounded optimistic yesterday, but  his tune can change at any time which may explain the tepid rally.

The week ahead may see crushing periods of boredom interrupted by periods of mere tedium, except perhaps in Britain. A slew of UK economic reports, a European Central Bank policy meeting and the release of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes from March 20 suggests Wednesday may be wacky for traders.

On the other hand, it could be a crushing bore. The ECB is unlikely to deliver any game-changing policy insight. They pushed out the date for the next interest increase until the end of 2019, early 2020 and gave details about a new TLTRO last month and they aren’t expected to offer anything new this month. UK data will take a backseat to the dog’s breakfast that is Brexit. British MPs are hoping that the EU will grant an extension to article 50 which if they don’t, means the UK and the EU part company on April 12.
 
Chart: EURUSD 15 minute showing reaction aroundNFP. Source: Saxo Bank

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


Business Hills Park – Building 4,
4th Floor, office 401, Dubai Hills Estate, P.O. Box 33641, Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.