background image

NY Open: Cable all over the map on Brexit breakdown

Forex 4 minutes to read
MO
Michael O’Neill

FX Trader, Loonieviews.net

Summary:  The US economy remains on track with a mixed-to-positive Retail Sales print, but the same can't be said for the British currency, which is reeling on a flurry of Brexit headlines.


First off, let's look at the stateside data being overlooked in favour of the GBPUSD trade: Americans went shopping in October. Retail Sales rose 0.8%, beating the 0.5% forecast and well above September’s decline of 0.1%. The stellar results were tarnished by downward revisions to the September and August data, but keep the US economic growth story on track.
Retail and Food Services
Source: US Census Bureau
Walmart (WMT: NYSE) supported the rise in Retail Sales, but traders didn’t seem impressed with the company's quarterly results. The Beast of Bentonville's shares are trading down 0.52% as of 14:00 GMT despite the firm recording higher quarterly sales and raising its profit outlook for the fiscal year ending in January.

The DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices are trading with small losses.

The US dollar has ceded ground since opening in New York, albeit marginally. The major focus is Brexit with traders keeping an eye on US/China trade developments, oil, and Wall Street. Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg called for a vote of no-confidence, which put fact to the earlier rumours.

GBPUSD, at 1.2800, is above the 1.2753 low reached when Brexit Minister Dominic Raab resigned. Technically, the move below 1.2888, representing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2017-2018 range, opens the door to further losses to 1.2540. However, GBPUSD trading is a headline-driven crap-shoot, requiring very deep pockets, nimble fingers, and an inside track to political news.

FX risk sentiment is still slightly positive with traders digesting news of China’s overture suggesting a renewed effort to resolve the trade dispute. Traders are also emboldened by yesterday’s comments from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. His warning that the economy could face headwinds suggested a tempering of the pace of US rate increases.
GBPUSD 15-minute
GBPUSD (15-minute, source: Saxo Bank)

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...


Business Hills Park – Building 4,
4th Floor, office 401, Dubai Hills Estate, P.O. Box 33641, Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.