Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access all of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - USDJPY gives mixed signals. EURUSD in uptrend and Dollar Index testing rising trendline
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
USDJPY forming triangle pattern testing 145.30 key support but RSI still bullish
EURUSD in short-term rising trend. Will it test key resistance at 1.02?
Dollar Index in a down trend testing medium-term rising trendline
USDJPY is once again testing support at 145.30A break and close below is likely to push USDJPY to test key support at 140.25. It seems to have formed a descending like pattern. Break out direction could be either way.
However, RSI still shows positive sentiment since it has not broken below 40 threshold, and there is no divergence on the September-October peaks which indicates higher levels. Next couple of days could be crucial. If USDJPY breaks above 148.85 new highs are likely.
If RSI closes above its short-term falling trend line there is good indication of this new highs scenario to play out.
EURUSD seems to be trading in a rising channel testing October peak at around 1.01 thereby making higher highs and higher lows i.e., short-term uptrend.
If 1.01, which is just a minor resistance, is broken resistance at around 1.02 is next and the upper trendline in the channel. Key resistance at 1.0370
RSI is showing positive sentiment supporting short-term bullish view.
However, if EURUSD slides back below 0.9730 September lows around 0.9535 is likely to be tested.
Dollar Index was rejected at the short-term rising trendline it tried to break back above a couple of days ago. Short-term down trend is confirmed with lower lows and lower highs.
The Dollar Index is few cents from testing the medium-term rising trendline (lower black line). If the trendline is broken support at 107.67 is likely to be tested. A close below 107.67 is likely to lead to a sell-off down to around 105-104.50.
For the Dollar Index to reverse this bearish picture a close above 113.05 Is needed.
An RSI close above its upper falling trend line in the falling channel it is forming could be first indication of this scenario to unfold.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...