Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
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Technical Update - EURUSD Breaking key resistance, could push to 1.1455. Find out why here
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
EURUSD resumed its uptrend after dipping below the 0.50 retracement at 1.0892 and is now breaking above last week's peak at 1.1009.
The strength indicator RSI is supporting higher EURUSD levels, short-term there should be upside potential to 1.1087-1.1105 area. But medium-term-term there could be more in store for EURUSD
Medium-term weekly chart: EURUSD is breaking bullish out of the symmetrical triangle-like pattern it has formed over the past year or so. If it can close above resistance at 1.0980 and RSI closes above the 60 threshold, there is upside potential to the triangle peak at1.1275, with resistance around 1.1140. 1.1275 is within a few cents of the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from the top to the bottom of the triangle.
However, there is further upside potential to the 0.618 Fibonacci level at around 1.1455 in the medium- to longer-term, i.e., end-2024 going into 2025. The two vertical arrows illustrate the top-to-bottom distance of the triangle. That distance is then added to the triangle breakout price
If EURUSD fails to close above 1.0980 and RSI above the 60 threshold by the end of the week, the bullish picture is demolished.
A daily close below 1.0880 will most likely reverse the bullish trend.
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