Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - EURUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY & Dollar Index
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
EURUSD has bounced off its lower rising trendline just a few cents above the 0.786 retracemnt at around 1.0928.
RSI is still showing positive sentiment and if closing above 60 threshold the correction is likely to be over.
If EURUSD moves back above the 21 daily Moving Average the rebound could accelerate for EURUSD to test resistance at around 1.1147 which is also the 0.618 retracement.
A close above that level will most likely push EWURUSD to July peak at around 1.1275.
However, if EURUSD breaks below Friday low at 1.0943 a push to key support at around 1.0833 could be seen.
The rising 55 and 100 daily Moving Averages will offer some support, however.
USDJPY bounced just above support at 137.85 and is at the time pof writing above 0.618 retracemtn at 1420.8.
A close above will mean USDJPY has resumed uptrend.
If RSI is then also closing above 60 threshold the uptrend will be confirmed with a likely move higher to test 145.
A close below 137.20 will demolish the uptrend scenario and send USDJPY down to around 135.55 level.
EURJPY Double Top pattern was confirmed but the selling pressure didn’t last long. A dip down to the 0.382 projection at around 151.49 seems to be all.
Now with EURJPY back above its lower rising trendline that was broken the Double Top pattern should be considered cancelled and EURJPY is likely to test the strong resistance at around 158.
If RSI closes back above 60 threshold and above its falling trendline 158 is likely to be broken. A move to the 1.382 projection at around 160.59 would then be in the cards
AUDJPY Spiked down to find support around the 100 and 200 Moving Averages, and the 0.50 retracement at 91.86.
Massive bounce above rising trendline AUDJPY seems set for uptrend to resume.
If breaking above its short-term upper falling trendline and RSI also closes above its falling trendline AUDJPY is likely to resume uptrend with potential to June peak around 97.67.
A close above 95.86 will confirm the uptrend scenario.
To demolish that scenario a close below 93.00
Dollar Index reached the 0.618 retracement at around 101.73 and the correction could be over. The Dollar Index could resume downtrend with support at around 100.32 and the 0.618 retracement at 100.23
However, a move up to the 0.786 retracement at 102.41 should not be ruled out. If the Dollar Index breaks above Friday peak at 101.83 it is likely to materialize.
That will not demolish the medium-term bearish trend however. A close above 103.28 would be needed to do that.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment and needs to close above 60 to reverse that
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