Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access all of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - EURUSD and GBPUSD lower, but how much lower? Find the key levels here
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
EURUSD correction is close to testing the 0.618 retracement at 1.0773. Key question: will it stop here and bounce, or will the sell-off continue, pushing EURUSD down to the 0.786 retracement at 1.0726?
The keytop that will be the strength indicator RSI: will it bounce from the 40 threshold or close below?
If closing below, there is a great likelihood EURUSD will drop to 1.0726, possibly lower.
If bouncing off, the positive sentiment would be intact and EURUSD is likely to rebound.
In case we see a rebound, EURUSD is likely to resume a bullish trend. A daily close above 1.0850 will confirm that scenario playing out.
However, EURUSD is currently trading below the declining 55 and 100 moving averages, which is putting a damper on any bullish attempt.
The keytop that will be the strength indicator RSI: will it bounce from the 40 threshold or close below?
If closing below, there is a great likelihood EURUSD will drop to 1.0726, possibly lower.
If bouncing off, the positive sentiment would be intact and EURUSD is likely to rebound.
In case we see a rebound, EURUSD is likely to resume a bullish trend. A daily close above 1.0850 will confirm that scenario playing out.
However, EURUSD is currently trading below the declining 55 and 100 moving averages, which is putting a damper on any bullish attempt.
GBPUSD is, at the time of writing, breaking below the support and 0.618 retracement at around 1.2777.
A daily close below is likely to further fuel the sell-off down to the support and 0.786 retracement at around 1.27.
Similar to EURUSD, the strength indicator RSI will be key: will it bounce from the 40 threshold or close below? If closing below, there is a great likelihood GBPUSD will drop to 1.27, possibly lower to the 1.26 area.
If GBPUSD is closing the day back above 1.2780, a rebound could be seen. A daily close back above 1.2890, a bullish trend has been established.
A daily close below is likely to further fuel the sell-off down to the support and 0.786 retracement at around 1.27.
Similar to EURUSD, the strength indicator RSI will be key: will it bounce from the 40 threshold or close below? If closing below, there is a great likelihood GBPUSD will drop to 1.27, possibly lower to the 1.26 area.
If GBPUSD is closing the day back above 1.2780, a rebound could be seen. A daily close back above 1.2890, a bullish trend has been established.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...