Log in Open account
UAE
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
Show more
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Show less
Technical Update - Selling continues in JPY pairs. Find key levels here for USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY and GBPJPY Technical Update - Selling continues in JPY pairs. Find key levels here for USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY and GBPJPY Technical Update - Selling continues in JPY pairs. Find key levels here for USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY and GBPJPY

Technical Update - Selling continues in JPY pairs. Find key levels here for USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY and GBPJPY

Forex 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

USDJPY sell-off last week pushed the pair down below the 0.786 retracement at 156.13 but rebounded to close above. There was potential for further rebounding but so far it has failed. To resume uptrend a close above 158.85 is required.

Strength Indicator RSI is showing negative sentiment indicating another sell-off could hit USDJPY.

If USDJPY is breaking below the 18th July spike down – Do not think a close below is required -  selling pressure is likely to have enough energy to push the pair to 154.54 possibly down to 153.60

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

EURJPY has now twice dipped below the 0.618 retracement  and key support at around 170.61-170.54 only to close above. If EURJPY is breaking below the first spike down at 169.98 a sell-off is likely to push the pair down below the lower rising trendline to the 0.786 retracement at 169.21.

IF RSI is closing below 40 threshold it will shift to showing negative sentiment which can lad to additional selling pressure for EURJPY

To resume uptrend a daily close above 172.92 is required

AUDJPY has taken out its 19th ¨July trough and is close to be testing the 0.786 retracement at 104.06.

RSI is showing negative sentiment indicting lower AUDJPY levels are likely. A bearish push to key strong support at around 102.60 could be seen.

A daily close above 105.80 will demolish this bearish picture and likely lift the pair higher towards 107.50

GBPJPY is in a bearish trend currently trading around 202 and the 0.382  retracement of the June to July trend (red Fibonacci levels) after dipping twice down to the 0.618 retracement of the May to July bullish trend (blue Fibonacci levels)

If GBPJPY is taking out today’s low at 201.89 the selling pressure could intensify with a bearish move to support at around 198.30 to follow

RSI is still showing positive sentiment and if rebounding from 40 threshold GBPJPY could resume bullish trend.

For GBPJPY to resume uptrend a daily above 206.80 required. First indication of that scenario to play would be a break above 104.25

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article

  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article

  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article

  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article
Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-mena/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)


Business Hills Park – Building 4,
4th Floor, office 401, Dubai Hills Estate, P.O. Box 33641, Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE
Products & pricing
Platforms
Accounts & service
General
Other
Legal

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.